Ozwitch

Star Power didn't do it for Kerry

Jim Schembri of The Age writes how the Universe of stars who supported Kerry during the campaign didn't translate into votes, and wonders if this will lead to a shift in the way we view celebrities and their influence on our lives:

"It was nothing personal, of course, but the result proved one thing: celebrity endorsement of a presidential candidate carries about as much weight as would endorsement by a Simpsons character.

Pop culture has always served as a rich medium for political commentary, whether through film, music or comedy. But the long-held presumption that commentary somehow translates into clout - and votes - has received a most resounding backhander."

Gosh, how disappointing. What is left for celebs to do these days? Causes are out - no one gives a damm what celebs think. Gratuitous self-promotion whilst touting said causes is also out. Bad luck Dixies. Only thing left is to act and sing, though in the Dixie's case, I think I'd prefer them supporting Dems.

What will Michael Moore do now?

Howard should remember the Fraser years

Almost 20 years ago when Gough Whitlam was tossed out once by Sir John Kerr and then again by the Australian electorate, Malcolm Fraser led his Liberal coalition into the House of Representatives Chamber where they overflowed into the Opposition benches, there were so many of them. He also won a historic Senate majority of 6 seats.

Surprisingly, Fraser, with this massive mandate from the Australian people, did very little with it. He basically sat on his bum for seven years while introducing piecemeal reform like the Family Court and SBS, but wasted his opportunity to deliver real legislative and economic reforms that the conservatives had been trying to get through the Senate for years, such as deregulation, lowering of income tax, smaller government and tariff reduction, leaving the Australian industrial marketplace hopelessly overprotected and uncompetitive for years. It's fairly safe to say that Malcolm Fraser was at this time more hated by Liberal than Labor voters because of this betrayal of their wishes.

John Howard, as Treasurer, tried to introduce the reforms, but Fraser overrode him every time, and eventually Howard became so pissed off with his leader he tried to resign.

Kidnappers are just misunderstood

John Martinkus was freed after 20 hours from his kidnappers because they googled him and found nothing to object to, so they let him go.

Good for him. He evidently did and said the right things to avoid getting his head cut off. So would I under the circumstances. Whatever works.

But listen to what he says when he gets back home:

These guys, they're not stupid. They are fighting a war but they are not savages - they're not actually killing people willy-nilly. There was no reason for them to kill me," he told reporters on his arrival at Sydney airport last night.

"There was a reason to kill (British hostage Kenneth) Bigley, there was a reason to kill the (two) Americans (kidnapped with Bigley). There was not a reason to kill me.

So they're selective about who they kill. That doesn't make them any less savages, John. Doesn't make their actions any sounder, because they let you go. They are murderers. You were just lucky.

The fact that Martinkus files for SBS should be enough to determine what angle he's working.

UPDATE: Alexander Downer has blasted Mr Martinkus for his 'appalling' comments, declaring the journalist has effectively given 'aid and comfort to terrorists.'

I'm wondering just how Martinkus comes by his 'independent journalist' tag when he has such a blatant agenda. But then I'm equating 'independent' with 'unbiased.' Martinkus seems neither.

Mark Steyn's column that was pulled

Tim Blair has done the good deed and posted Mark Steyn's column that was pulled from the Daily Telegraph in the UK, for reasons which will become obvious as you read it. Here's a short extract and the rest you should really read yourself, if only to understand why the Islamist kidnappings and beheadings will go on when governments and individuals react to them the way they do:

By contrast with the Fleet Street-Scouser-Whitehall fiasco of the last three weeks, consider Fabrizio Quattrocchi, murdered in Iraq on April 14th. In the moment before his death, he yanked off his hood and cried defiantly, “I will show you how an Italian dies!” He ruined the movie for his killers. As a snuff video and recruitment tool, it was all but useless, so much so that the Arabic TV stations declined to show it.

Unfortunately the general public will not get to read the column. Steyn is hard but the truth of what he says is undeniable. It's an attack on our emotional reaction to tragedy and what we do about it to make ourselves feel better, not what we can do to prevent further enactments of these barbaric practices.

Post-Election sundries

Terry McCrann takes a swipe at his fellow journalists from the Press Gallery today:

From the raving abuse of the trio of columnists, the Sydney Morning Herald's Alan Ramsay, its very, very unhappy Margot Kingston, and The Australian's Phillip Adams; the vicious anti-cartoons of The Australian's Bill Leak and John Fairfax's Leunig; through Robert Manne and those 43 imminently disturbing citizens, and on to the vast majority of the Canberra Press Gallery.
All and many more – indeed, the nation's literati and culturati, almost to a man and woman – `work' to positively define Howard in the reverse image of themselves.

And to completely misread their fellow – ordinary – Australians.

Body Language

Four readers wrote in to the Herald Sun today listing their reason for dumping Mark Latham: They didn't like his handshake.

The Opposition Leader and the Prime Minister met during a radio debate last week and shook hands for the photo op. Latham decided to do the handcrush and then stuck his not immeasurable frame quite a few inches into Howard's personal space.

This aggressive in-your-face approach didn't go down too well with a lot of voters:

"The encounter at a radio station late last week showed it all; Latham grasps Howard's hand, not in a statesmanlike manner showing respect between equals, but forcibly pulling Howard, attempting to physically intimidate him. No typical egalitarian Australian behaviour there, only that of a bully,"

says Antony O'Donnell of Glen Waverley.

And Peter Goss of Maribyrnong writes:

"No Australian likes a standover man. I was undecided who to vote for - he made my mind up for me. Is he the right one to lead the Labor Party?"

I too saw that incident on tv and it reminded me of a previous Commanding Officer I'd worked for about twenty years ago. I met him for the first time, me an insignificant Lieutenant, he a Group Captain and immeasurably above me in rank and status, and he stuck his hand out in the horizontal and put it over mine in the classic "I'm above you" gesture. I had no respect for him from that moment on, and subsequent events eventually confirmed my initial impression.

It's amazing how body language, especially a handshake, can reveal so much.

Compulsory Voting

Apparently there was about a 5% informal vote on Saturday, equally shared between the two Houses. Some of this is put down to genuine mistakes, and some to 'protest' voting, where the voter just doesn't want to vote for anyone and so votes informal. Apparently in one electorate in Sydney it was 10%.

Voting in Australia is compulsory, right from the moment you turn 18, from Federal down to local Council elections. I've never regarded this as a yoke round my neck but have always enjoyed the right to vote, and the responsibility that goes along with it. I figure that if you can't be bothered to vote, if you can't show even that tiny bit of civic responsibility, then you don't have the right to complain afterwards about the state of the nation.

The Post Mortems roll on

Currency Lad has the funniest ticker up.

Be warned, it's long - but it's worth it.

For the Lefties, it's just too awful to stick around any longer

Margo Kingston is a columnist for the SMH. I started reading her column a while ago but gave her up. I can read Lefties but not her kind of what-do-you-mean-you-support-the-war-how-can-you? attitude that anybody who doesn't agree with her particular side of politics is a few bats short of a belfry.

But today I thought I'd take a peek at her reaction to the Election result:

And here it is:

I'm taking a month off from Monday. Let's talk after that.

Well, if anybody can remember you in a month's time, Margo.

And it seems to be catching:

Chris Shiel is also contemplating throwing in the towel:

This is my final election '04 post (and I'm not sure about the future of this blog).

Well, I don't know about you but I was not at all sure of the outcome of this Election last night. But one thing I do know: come Monday I wasn't packing up my blog and keyboard and going home. Life goes on. Although obviously for some of the shattered and betrayed Left, it doesn't. It's just too awful to contemplate.

Some sticking power. At least their leader promised to stay around and fight. With supporters like these, he's going to need all the extra help he can get.

Our funny voting system

Neptunus Lex is back on air and back ashore. Welcome back Lex.

He's expressed some perplexity about our weird Aussie preferential voting system.

It doesn't seem that complicated when you're at the polling booth, but I guess if you're trying to explain the complexities of primary votes and two-party preferred swings, yes it's a bit of a head-scratcher. I'll try to precis it:

Unlike the US, we never vote for a leader, either separately or in tandem with parliamentary voting. We vote for a local member, and the party wins, not the Prime Minister. Although Australia is effectively a two-party country at present, there can be up to 12 or 14 candidates in any one electorate, from the two major parties, minor parties and independents. When we vote, we must rate the candidates from 1 to 10 or however many there are. A partial vote is declared informal.

Election Latest

The ABC has the latest figures and trends.

Looks like an early swing to the Libs, but early swings have been known to go nowhere before. However, I'd rather be in John Howard's shoes right now.

UPDATE 1: I'm watching the Nine coverage - despite Amanda Vanstone who really shouldn't be doing any in-depth analysis in public.

Nine's tally figures give the Coalition 60 seats - at this rate we'll be calling it in about half an hour.

Family First have made some good numbers for their first showing - maybe more in the Senate as Natasha S-D says.

Ray's given up on Labor. Says they can't win now.

UPDATE 2: Michael Kroeger also gives it to Howard and makes a fascinating point that Vic Premier Steve Bracks may have lost the election for Labor in Victoria. That will make for an interesting State election in 2006.

UPDATE 3: Looks like an increased majority. Not what I called at any rate. I thought there'd be a narrow return for the Coalition but they're saying now that up to ten seats gained by the Libs et al.

Pollsters are saying that Latham's inexperience is a big factor. I would think, the guy's been Opposition Leader for a dogwatch. If he's still there in 3 years, Australians can judge him better.

Funny how the Labor Party's ads 3 years ago were saying that John Howard was going to retire during the term and we were all really voting for Peter Costello. Three years later, they're still claiming this will happen. Strangely, though, Labor have gone through 3 leaders in the past 3 years, and Howard is STILL THERE.

UPDATE 4: ALL the South-East Melbourne surrounds seats show swings to the Coalition, but will be retained by the sitting members. Except for Holt, which was redistributed and lost many Labor voters and their margin went from 13% to about 8%. Libs are currently pegging at a +9.0% swing. Holt could go. Another key Scoresby freeway seat for Bracks to worry about in 2 years' time.

UPDATE 5: ABC radio is saying a 4.5% swing to the Coalition in Victoria. That's massive. And the Family First is actually outpolling the Greens at present, which nobody expected. In fact, this whole result is what nobody was expecting.

HOLT has come back to the Labor party by 2% with 58% counted.

Phil Baressi is on TV now claiming victory for Deakin, another Scoresby feeway seat. He's making the point too about Latham dumping on them by redirecting the funds to other projects. It seems like an obvious point - Bracks is going to have to do some serious re-thinking about this.

UPDATE 6: The vote seems to have platformed a bit with about 50% of the national vote counted except WA. Which seems to indicate that the early swing was maybe a bit too far to the Coalition. The undecideds are the ones who vote later on, and this may determine the size of the Coalition's majority, but not the result, which is pretty much beyond doubt now.

The Greens will have no seats in the Lower House.

UPDATE 7: Michael Kroeger reports that this result is the best-ever for the Liberal Party in Victoria in a Federal Election in 27 years, when the Prime Minister doesn't come from that State. He's positively crowing and who can blame him. Over 50% of the primary vote in Victoria. Wow.

Kingston SA, which is a marginal Labor seat, looks like going to the Libs with Family First preferences, who are also polling well nationally with 4% of the primary vote.

No one's calling this yet, although it seems obvious that Labor are not going to win 13 seats off the Coalition in order to gain a majority, and are going to lose some of their own in the process. However, the early Lib barnstorm has been pegged back a bit.

Bleah. Bob Katter's on tv. I'm changing channels for a bit. See how depressed they are over at the ABC.

Kerry O'Brien's calling it for John Howard and you can almost see the words stick in his craw. Swing seems to have settled at about 3.2% to the Liberals. The Liberal Party will almost certainly increase its majority in its own right. Labor have remained steady, Greens have made gains but not as much as they hoped and have lost their only seat, and the Democrats are nowhere as everybody thought. Family First have done extremely well in their first showing.

I'll come back when Johnny claims it or Latham concedes.

UPDATE 8: Well, I'm back anyway. Costello is on Ch 9 now talking up the Victorian result which is massive. He's also being jocular about his plans for the next 3 years. The media just won't leave it alone. Costello ain't going to give anything away right now.
Point: Nobody's talking national security much. The emphasis is all on economic management and Latham's inexperience. I think national security has a fair bit to do with the vote tonight, but nobody really wants to admit they voted because of that. But the Labor Party's bring-the-troops-back position doesn't seem to have won them any advantages.

Natasha Stott-Despoja is on now explaining why the Democrats have stunk so badly this election. They're badly down in both Houses and their vote has not gone to the Greens, but back to the Conservatives. They seem to have totally collapsed as an alternative party, and the head-scratching is beginning already I imagine. My view is that no one seems to know what the Democrats are for any more, except maybe being for the Democrats. They've lost their vision. They seemed obsessed with being the balance of power in the Senate and happy with that. But they've lost that as well. Time to go back to the drawing board for the Democrats.

Liberals are making gains in WA, should pick up at least two seats - Hasluck and Stirling, maybe Cowan.

UPDATE 10: Latham's about to concede. The sweet taste of it. And I'm gonna say it - the media can stick it. They tried their hardest but the Australian population decided to vote for themselves.

Yaaaaaaay. I'm off for a drink or two. Cheers all.

FINALLY: It looks like a clear Coalition majority in both houses. That's even more amazing. You can say, as Labor is trying to say on tv right now, that Australians have opted for 'the devil you know' but when the Australian populace hands the kind of control to the Senate that they have tonight, it's a very clear mandate to enforce Coalition policy and there's no devil about it.

Good night.

Further bogged in the mire of the Scoresby Freeway

The Victorian Government continues to dig itself further into the boggy mire that is the Scoresby Freeway project. Opposition Leader Robert Doyle triumphantly waved some leaked documents in Parliament yesterday that reveal Premier Steve Bracks would only sign 'congratulatory letters' regarding the tolling the Freeway, and any other 'standard' letters (presumably complaints or other comments) would be signed by his Chief of Staff.

I'm not sure this revelation is as important as Doyle thinks it is. If proved, then yes Bracks is a slimy backflipper keen to grab glory but not as keen to shoulder blame. But I'm not rocked back on my heels by that realization, as I knew it anyway.