The ABC has the latest figures and trends.
Looks like an early swing to the Libs, but early swings have been known to go nowhere before. However, I'd rather be in John Howard's shoes right now.
UPDATE 1: I'm watching the Nine coverage - despite Amanda Vanstone who really shouldn't be doing any in-depth analysis in public.
Nine's tally figures give the Coalition 60 seats - at this rate we'll be calling it in about half an hour.
Family First have made some good numbers for their first showing - maybe more in the Senate as Natasha S-D says.
Ray's given up on Labor. Says they can't win now.
UPDATE 2: Michael Kroeger also gives it to Howard and makes a fascinating point that Vic Premier Steve Bracks may have lost the election for Labor in Victoria. That will make for an interesting State election in 2006.
UPDATE 3: Looks like an increased majority. Not what I called at any rate. I thought there'd be a narrow return for the Coalition but they're saying now that up to ten seats gained by the Libs et al.
Pollsters are saying that Latham's inexperience is a big factor. I would think, the guy's been Opposition Leader for a dogwatch. If he's still there in 3 years, Australians can judge him better.
Funny how the Labor Party's ads 3 years ago were saying that John Howard was going to retire during the term and we were all really voting for Peter Costello. Three years later, they're still claiming this will happen. Strangely, though, Labor have gone through 3 leaders in the past 3 years, and Howard is STILL THERE.
UPDATE 4: ALL the South-East Melbourne surrounds seats show swings to the Coalition, but will be retained by the sitting members. Except for Holt, which was redistributed and lost many Labor voters and their margin went from 13% to about 8%. Libs are currently pegging at a +9.0% swing. Holt could go. Another key Scoresby freeway seat for Bracks to worry about in 2 years' time.
UPDATE 5: ABC radio is saying a 4.5% swing to the Coalition in Victoria. That's massive. And the Family First is actually outpolling the Greens at present, which nobody expected. In fact, this whole result is what nobody was expecting.
HOLT has come back to the Labor party by 2% with 58% counted.
Phil Baressi is on TV now claiming victory for Deakin, another Scoresby feeway seat. He's making the point too about Latham dumping on them by redirecting the funds to other projects. It seems like an obvious point - Bracks is going to have to do some serious re-thinking about this.
UPDATE 6: The vote seems to have platformed a bit with about 50% of the national vote counted except WA. Which seems to indicate that the early swing was maybe a bit too far to the Coalition. The undecideds are the ones who vote later on, and this may determine the size of the Coalition's majority, but not the result, which is pretty much beyond doubt now.
The Greens will have no seats in the Lower House.
UPDATE 7: Michael Kroeger reports that this result is the best-ever for the Liberal Party in Victoria in a Federal Election in 27 years, when the Prime Minister doesn't come from that State. He's positively crowing and who can blame him. Over 50% of the primary vote in Victoria. Wow.
Kingston SA, which is a marginal Labor seat, looks like going to the Libs with Family First preferences, who are also polling well nationally with 4% of the primary vote.
No one's calling this yet, although it seems obvious that Labor are not going to win 13 seats off the Coalition in order to gain a majority, and are going to lose some of their own in the process. However, the early Lib barnstorm has been pegged back a bit.
Bleah. Bob Katter's on tv. I'm changing channels for a bit. See how depressed they are over at the ABC.
Kerry O'Brien's calling it for John Howard and you can almost see the words stick in his craw. Swing seems to have settled at about 3.2% to the Liberals. The Liberal Party will almost certainly increase its majority in its own right. Labor have remained steady, Greens have made gains but not as much as they hoped and have lost their only seat, and the Democrats are nowhere as everybody thought. Family First have done extremely well in their first showing.
I'll come back when Johnny claims it or Latham concedes.
UPDATE 8: Well, I'm back anyway. Costello is on Ch 9 now talking up the Victorian result which is massive. He's also being jocular about his plans for the next 3 years. The media just won't leave it alone. Costello ain't going to give anything away right now.
Point: Nobody's talking national security much. The emphasis is all on economic management and Latham's inexperience. I think national security has a fair bit to do with the vote tonight, but nobody really wants to admit they voted because of that. But the Labor Party's bring-the-troops-back position doesn't seem to have won them any advantages.
Natasha Stott-Despoja is on now explaining why the Democrats have stunk so badly this election. They're badly down in both Houses and their vote has not gone to the Greens, but back to the Conservatives. They seem to have totally collapsed as an alternative party, and the head-scratching is beginning already I imagine. My view is that no one seems to know what the Democrats are for any more, except maybe being for the Democrats. They've lost their vision. They seemed obsessed with being the balance of power in the Senate and happy with that. But they've lost that as well. Time to go back to the drawing board for the Democrats.
Liberals are making gains in WA, should pick up at least two seats - Hasluck and Stirling, maybe Cowan.
UPDATE 10: Latham's about to concede. The sweet taste of it. And I'm gonna say it - the media can stick it. They tried their hardest but the Australian population decided to vote for themselves.
Yaaaaaaay. I'm off for a drink or two. Cheers all.
FINALLY: It looks like a clear Coalition majority in both houses. That's even more amazing. You can say, as Labor is trying to say on tv right now, that Australians have opted for 'the devil you know' but when the Australian populace hands the kind of control to the Senate that they have tonight, it's a very clear mandate to enforce Coalition policy and there's no devil about it.
Good night.
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